BTHE BARATELLI INSTITUTE · Mentoring at Scale
FOR HOSPITAL FOUNDATION DIRECTORS · DEVELOPMENT VPs · MAJOR-GIFT TEAMS · NONPROFIT BOARDS

Identification × Cultivation × Solicitation. Most pipelines lie at exactly one of those stages.

The 12-month major-gift forecast is the single number every foundation board asks about — and the single number most development teams overstate. This builds the pipeline tier-by-tier, applies realistic stage conversion rates, checks staff capacity against industry portfolio norms, and tells you the truth: where your bottleneck is, and what gets closed if nothing changes.

Expected $
Closed in 12 mo
Coverage
vs goal $
Bottleneck
Stage that's lying
Capacity
MGO load check
YOUR PIPELINE
1
Donor universe
2
Cultivation stage
3
Conversion rates
4
Gift sizes by tier
5
Staff & results
STAGE 1 OF 5

Donor universe

The honest count of identified prospects, segmented by capacity tier. Defaults are typical for a mid-size hospital foundation (~$10M annual major-gift goal).

12-month major-gift revenue target (gifts $5K+, excluding annual fund, events, planned-gift realizations).
$
Names in your CRM flagged as "major-gift prospect" — any record, any stage. This is the top-of-funnel count.
Subset confirmed via wealth screening AND showing affinity signal (board referral, prior gift, event attendance, peer screening). Industry norm: 30-45% of identified.
Capacity-rating tiers (qualified prospects only)

Distribute your qualified prospects across capacity bands. Most foundations have a top-heavy identified list and a bottom-heavy qualified list — that gap is where forecasts die.

Tier 1 · Principal ($100K+)
Tier 2 · Major ($25K–$100K)
Tier 3 · Mid ($5K–$25K)
Tier 4 · Entry (under $5K)
What "qualified" actually means. A name in the CRM is not a prospect. A prospect is someone whose capacity has been verified (wealth screening, real-estate records, foundation 990s, or peer review) AND who has demonstrated some affinity to your mission within the last 36 months. Lists that haven't been re-screened in 24+ months overstate qualified counts by 30-50%.
STAGE 2 OF 5

Where prospects sit in the cycle

Of your qualified prospects, how many are at each stage of the moves-management cycle? The shape of this distribution is the single best predictor of what closes in the next 12 months.

Recently qualified, first 1–3 touches made. Won't close inside 12 months in any meaningful volume.
Active moves-management plan, 4+ substantive touches, board or volunteer engagement, site visit completed or scheduled.
Solicitation strategy drafted, ask amount calibrated, solicitor identified. These are the prospects that drive 12-month forecast revenue.
Formal ask submitted, awaiting donor response. Typical decision window: 30–120 days.
The 12-month forecast math. Only late-stage and currently-in-solicitation prospects materially contribute to the 12-month close forecast. Early-stage and mid-stage prospects matter for years 2 and 3 — but counting them as "pipeline" in a 12-month forecast is how foundation boards get the wrong number. We separate the two below.
STAGE 3 OF 5

Stage-to-stage conversion rates

Industry benchmarks shown beside each input. If your historical close rates are materially different, use yours — the math becomes more honest, not less.

Of identified names, what % survive wealth-screening + affinity check. Industry: 30–45%. Below 25% suggests the identified pool is over-counted.
%
Of qualified prospects, what % will advance to active cultivation in the next year. Industry: 35–55% depending on staff capacity.
%
Of cultivated prospects, what % will receive a formal ask. Industry: 50–70% — a strong team pushes everything cultivated to a yes/no within the planning horizon.
%
Of formal asks, what % close at any amount. Industry: 35–55%. This is your aggregate — tier-specific close rates are calibrated in Stage 4.
%
Where teams self-deceive. The most-fudged number in the moves-management funnel is qualified→cultivated. Foundations report 60–70% conversion when the true rate (active moves with documented contact in the last 90 days) is closer to 30%. The second most-fudged is cultivated→solicited — most foundations end the year with 40–50% of "cultivated" prospects never asked. The math below will surface this gap.
STAGE 4 OF 5

Average gift sizes & tier-specific close rates

Close rate falls and gift size rises as you move up the tiers. The product of the two — expected $ per prospect — is what builds the pipeline forecast.

Tier 1 · Principal — Avg gift size
$
Tier 1 close rate (%)
%
Bench: 20–35%
Tier 2 · Major — Avg gift size
$
Tier 2 close rate (%)
%
Bench: 30–45%
Tier 3 · Mid — Avg gift size
$
Tier 3 close rate (%)
%
Bench: 45–60%
Tier 4 · Entry — Avg gift size
$
Tier 4 close rate (%)
%
Bench: 55–70%
Combines stages 2 + 3 into a blended ask-rate. Auto-calculated from your inputs as: (qualified→cultivated) × (cultivated→solicited).
STAGE 5 OF 5

Staff capacity & results

A pipeline forecast that exceeds your team's visit capacity is a forecast that's lying. The industry rule: each major-gift officer carries an active portfolio of 100–150 and completes 150–200 face-to-face visits per year.

FTE count of officers with carried portfolios. Includes VP/Director time spent on portfolio (typically 0.5 FTE for VP).
Active prospects assigned to each officer. Industry: 100–150 active. Above 150 = portfolios too thin to move; below 80 = under-deployed.
Documented face-to-face contacts (in-person or substantive video). Industry: 150–200/year. Below 100 = the program isn't running.
Substantive contacts between qualification and close. Industry rule of thumb: 7±3 visits over 12–18 months for a major gift.
HERE, TRY THESE. THEY MAY HELP.

The pipeline is one chapter of a much larger development playbook.

The Family Office Guide and Estate Planning Decoded together cover the full donor-side stack: how high-net-worth families decide to give, the vehicles they use (DAFs, CRTs, CGAs, private foundations), the estate-plan triggers that surface planned gifts, and the development-office operating disciplines that turn pipeline into closed revenue. Three honest places to start:

Read the Family Office Guide Read Estate Planning Decoded All free tools
This is not tax, legal, financial, or fundraising advice. Consult counsel and your CPA. Industry benchmarks shown are illustrative — verify against your peer institutions and current IRS/state rules before relying on any number. Pipeline forecasts depend on the quality of your underlying CRM data; this tool cannot validate inputs it cannot see. Estimates only.
WANT THE METHODOLOGY BEHIND THIS TOOL?
This calculator pairs with Family Office Guide and Estate Planning Decoded.
The tool gives you the pipeline math. The guides give you the surrounding workflow — donor decision psychology, DAF engagement, planned-giving program design, the estate-plan triggers that surface bequests, and the development-office operating model that turns pipeline into closed revenue.
Methodology references: FO Guide Ch 9 (Philanthropy operating model) and EPD Ch 6 (Charitable vehicles & planned giving).
Read the Family Office Guide → Browse all guides
PROFESSIONAL DISCLAIMER · PLEASE READ

Educational and informational purposes only. This calculator and any output it produces are intended solely for general educational and decision-support purposes. They do not constitute investment, tax, legal, accounting, fundraising-counsel, or any other professional advice, and they do not create a fiduciary, attorney-client, accountant-client, or advisor-client relationship of any kind.

Estimates based on your inputs. All pipeline forecasts and capacity checks are estimates derived from the conversion rates, prospect counts, and gift sizes you provide. The Baratelli Institute cannot verify the underlying CRM data, wealth screening, or moves-management discipline that produced your inputs. Industry benchmarks shown are illustrative and vary materially by sector (healthcare, higher ed, arts, social services), geography, and institutional age. Verify against your peer institutions and your prior 24–36 months of actuals before relying on any number.

Consult your own qualified professionals. Before acting on anything calculated here, consult your own fundraising counsel, prospect-research vendor, CPA (for 990 Schedule G reporting implications), and attorney (for solicitation registration and gift-acceptance policy review). The Baratelli Institute is a publisher of practitioner reference material. It is not a registered investment adviser, fundraising counsel, law firm, accounting firm, or prospect-research firm.

Co-branded versions: If a professional advisor's name and contact information appear on this tool, that advisor has elected to make the tool available to clients as a courtesy. Inclusion of an advisor's name does not constitute the advisor's endorsement of any specific result, nor does it transfer professional responsibility for the underlying methodology to that advisor. The disclaimer above applies regardless of co-branding.

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