BTHE BARATELLI INSTITUTE · Mentoring at Scale
FOR DEVELOPMENT DIRECTORS · MAJOR-GIFT OFFICERS · EDs · BOARDS BUILDING REALISTIC FORECASTS

"We have a $4M pipeline" is meaningless. This is the math your CFO wants to see.

Prospects by capacity tier × cultivation stage × conversion probability × average gift × portfolio capacity constraint × calendar pacing. The 24-month forecast every development director should be able to produce in 10 minutes. Most can't, because the underlying math is sitting in someone's head, not in a model. Build it once, run it weekly, and the board conversation about the development budget changes permanently.

12-Mo
Expected close
24-Mo
Pipeline forecast
Capacity
Staff bandwidth check
Bottleneck
Where it stalls
YOUR PIPELINE
1
Prospects by tier
2
Cultivation stage
3
Conversion & gift size
4
Staff capacity
5
Forecast & bottleneck
STAGE 1 OF 5

Prospects by capacity tier

The pipeline starts with capacity. Wealth-screening tells you who CAN give at each level — the rest is whether they will.

Lead prospects ($1M+ capacity)
Total in CRM (qualified)
Active conversations
Avg gift at this tier
$
Major prospects ($100K-$1M)
Total qualified
Active conversations
Avg gift at this tier
$
Mid-level prospects ($10K-$100K)
Total qualified
Active conversations
Avg gift at this tier
$
Broad-base donors (under $10K)
Total in CRM
Annual giving (avg)
$
Annual retention rate
%
The hardest input field. "Qualified" means the prospect has both capacity (wealth-screened or known) AND inclination signal (mission alignment, prior engagement, peer reference). Lists of names without inclination signal are not pipeline — they're a target list. Be ruthless. A 25-prospect pipeline with real signal closes more $ than a 200-prospect list of "they have money."
STAGE 2 OF 5

Cultivation stage by tier

Moves-management discipline: each prospect sits in one of six stages. The closer to "Ask," the higher the conversion probability — but ALSO the more staff time required. Most pipelines stall at the Cultivation → Solicit transition.

Lead prospects ($1M+) — stage distribution
Identify
Qualify
Cultivate
Solicit
Negotiate/close
Steward
Major prospects ($100K-$1M) — stage distribution
Identify
Qualify
Cultivate
Solicit
Negotiate/close
Steward
Mid-level prospects ($10K-$100K) — stage distribution
Identify
Qualify
Cultivate
Solicit
Negotiate/close
Steward
The Cultivation-to-Solicit chokepoint. Most pipelines pile up in Cultivation because making the ask is hard. Industry data: ~60% of "cultivation" prospects have been there for 18+ months without progress. The discipline: every prospect in Cultivation more than 12 months gets a written decision — move to Solicit, return to Qualify with a different strategy, or remove from pipeline. Holding doesn't work. Tool will flag this as a bottleneck in Stage 5.
STAGE 3 OF 5

Conversion probabilities by stage

Stage-by-stage probability the prospect closes in the 24-month window. Defaults are practitioner-typical from CASE / AFP data — override with your own historicals if available.

Conversion probability by stage (24-month window)
Identify
%
Qualify
%
Cultivate
%
Solicit
%
Negotiate/close
%
Steward
%

Steward stage applies to renewing/upgrading prior donors — typically 50-65% renew at or above prior level.

Adjust the avg-gift assumption from Stage 1. 1.0 = avg. 1.3 = above avg (e.g. transformational gift in pipeline). Use historicals.
STAGE 4 OF 5

Staff portfolio capacity

The capacity constraint nobody runs the math on. A frontline major-gift officer can carry a portfolio of 80-150 active prospects with discipline. Most carry 200+, which means many sit untouched. The pipeline value of an untouched prospect is zero, regardless of capacity tier.

Staff whose primary job is direct prospect-facing work. Excludes ED time (unless explicit % allocated), grants writer, events coordinator.
Industry benchmark: 80-150 active prospects per MGO with disciplined moves-management. Below 80 = underutilized. Above 150 = leaking through cracks.
% of ED's time on Lead-tier cultivation. ED-driven cultivation is necessary for lead prospects but expensive — adds 0.2-0.5 FTE equivalent.
%
Board members making prospect introductions, attending cultivation meetings. Each active board member adds ~0.05-0.1 FTE equivalent of cultivation capacity.
Documented prospect contacts (call, meeting, briefing) per year per active prospect. 8-12 = disciplined cultivation. Below 5 = passive.
Includes prep, the actual meeting/call, documentation, follow-up. Industry: 1.5-2.5 hours/move at major-gift level.
The capacity math nobody runs. Active prospects × moves per year × hours per move = required FTE-hours. If that exceeds your actual staff capacity, the difference is sitting in someone's notebook as "I'll get to them" — and the dollar value of an untouched prospect is zero. Most development directors discover their pipeline is 1.7-2.3× their staff capacity when they run this math the first time.
STAGE 5 OF 5

Forecast & bottleneck analysis

12, 18, and 24-month expected close, the capacity constraint, and the single bottleneck stage where the pipeline is stalling.

HERE — TRY THESE. THEY MAY HELP.

Pipeline math is one of 20+ development workflows we've put into open tools.

We don't sell your data. We don't run a webinar funnel. Three honest resources, free, that we'd hand you if you walked into our office and asked where to start.

Family Office Guide Estate Planning Decoded All free tools
Practitioner reference. Outputs are estimates based on user inputs. Conversion probabilities are typical-industry defaults from CASE / AFP / Lilly School of Philanthropy data — your historicals are more reliable than the defaults and should be substituted. The 24-month window is a planning horizon, not a forecast commitment to the board; share both the expected-value number AND the underlying assumption set when you brief leadership. This is not financial, tax, or legal advice.
WANT THE METHODOLOGY BEHIND THIS TOOL?
This calculator pairs with the Family Office Guide & Estate Planning Decoded.
The tool quantifies the pipeline. The guides cover what's happening on the donor side that drives the close-rate math — how a family foundation actually deliberates, the role of the donor's CPA and estate attorney, the giving vehicles (DAF, CRT, CLAT, private foundation) that determine when and how the gift gets made, and the multi-year planning that turns a one-time major gift into a 15-year giving partnership.
Read the Family Office Guide → Browse all guides
PROFESSIONAL DISCLAIMER · PLEASE READ

Educational and informational purposes only. This calculator and any output it produces are intended solely for general educational and decision-support purposes. They do not constitute investment, tax, legal, accounting, appraisal, lending, insurance, or any other professional advice.

Estimates based on your inputs. Conversion probabilities and gift-size assumptions are typical-industry defaults (CASE, AFP, Lilly School of Philanthropy) and vary widely by organization, cause, and region. Your historical close-rate and average-gift data — if you have it — are more reliable than the defaults. The 24-month forecast is a planning horizon, not a board commitment. Use it for staff allocation, budget building, and pipeline diagnostics; do not present the modeled number as a forecast without the assumption set attached.

Consult your own qualified professionals. Before acting on anything calculated here, consult your own attorney, CPA, or other qualified professional licensed in your jurisdiction.

Co-branded versions: The disclaimer applies regardless of co-branding.

Educational references and tools — not legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consult a qualified professional about your specific situation. © 2026 The Baratelli Institute.