SpaceX filed its Form S-1 on May 20, 2026, targeting a $1.75 trillion IPO — the largest in history. The Baratelli Institute published a practitioner reading of the filing within 24 hours. The base case lands at $1.55T. The shield in the tax footnote — the one the sell-side note will gloss with a flat statutory rate — is worth $4-5B PV in cash tax savings. Every figure tagged. Three scenarios. No buy/sell rating.
The case study is 58 pages — too big to scroll in a browser. Download a PDF to read on your own time.
The full memo tags every figure to its S-1 page. Disclosed numbers are anchored to filing text; practitioner estimates are tagged with the reasoning. The model’s Sources tab has 40+ tagged assumptions.
The Institute does not publish Buy / Sell / Hold ratings. The practitioner question is at what price does the math support allocation? The reader walks his own portfolio against the five-band map.
| Price band | What the math implies | What the reader is paying for |
|---|---|---|
| < $1.0T | Math implies clear undervaluation | Practically nothing — the Anthropic deal alone covers it |
| $1.0–1.4T | Math implies undervaluation | Connectivity ramp + Space + base AI; no optionality credit |
| $1.4–1.7T | Math implies fair value | Three segments fully credited; optionality bucket modest |
| $1.7–2.2T | Math implies a premium for optionality ($1.75T target sits here) | Cursor + Terafab + orbital + Starship monetization |
| > $2.2T | Math implies bull case is required | Mars-by-2030 + orbital AI compute + bull-case multiples on all three |
No rating. No price target. The math is on paper; the decision is the reader’s.
SpaceX’s S-1 Note 15 confirms a full federal valuation allowance against US deferred tax assets and a Q1 2026 effective rate of (0.1)%. The accumulated deficit on the balance sheet is approximately $41 billion.
The flat-statutory-rate read says “$41B × 21% = $8.7B of federal tax shield.” The practitioner read says: the shield is finite (depletes within the explicit forecast window), throttled (TCJA 80% cap + §382 ownership-change limitation on the xAI NOL), conditioned (COBE + potential NUBIG on the xAI side), and amplified (§174 R&D capitalization since 2022 makes the tax NOL larger than the GAAP loss base).
Run the mechanics inside the explicit forecast window, present-value at the 11% WACC: $4–5 billion in PV cash tax savings. Small in the context of a $1.75 trillion ask — roughly 25-30 basis points of equity value — but real, sourced, and undisclosed by the prospectus. Add it to the DCF as a discrete line. Do not apply it to the SOTP comparison metrics (those are pre-tax multiples; the after-tax shield is a double-count).
The full mechanics — including the practitioner flag for the post-IPO valuation-allowance release in the first three quarters — are in the 2-page NOL Addendum that ships with the case study.
Each chip below names a move from the SpaceX work and the Institute chapter that taught it. The full Library Crosswalk — with the application to the SpaceX package walked move by move — is the free download at the top of this page.
The full case study (57 pages) is a single PDF you can read offline, share with a client, or hand to a board. It stitches together six artifacts:
Every figure tagged to S-1 page. Three scenarios. Reader-side price-band map. The reading framed for the family-office principal.
Download memoThe federal tax-shield mechanics. TCJA 80% cap, §382 throttle, COBE conditions, §174 R&D capitalization wedge. PV cash tax savings $4–5B.
Download addendumBoard / IC-meeting form. Cover, S-1 in 8 numbers, three-segment business, segment details, Anthropic deal, revenue arch, FCF rollup, SOTP, scenarios, comps, risks, price-band map, library crosswalk.
Download deckNOL-adjusted SOTP + DCF + Comps + NOL Schedule + Drivers + Sources. 40+ tagged assumptions.
Download model PDFThe analytical techniques used in the case, named and mapped to the Institute chapter and page that teaches each one. 33 techniques, 8 guides cited.
Download crosswalkShare-ready summary for LinkedIn / journalist outreach / partner forwards. The whole case in one page.
Download one-pager“In 2006 I met one of the founding partners of what’s now one of the most respected boutique investment banks in the country — when the firm was just a few people in a room. This is the practitioner-shelf version of the bet they were making.”
If the work is compelling and you want the library on your own shelf, these are the five flagship guides the SpaceX educational case study was built from. Each is priced for a single working practitioner; the library is built to compose.
“If the package fits the portfolio, the reader buys. If it does not, the reader passes. Either is honorable. The dishonor is in deciding without doing the work.”