A practitioner read of Lyft at $13.90: ~21% FCF yield, buybacks reducing FY2025 share count ~18M, and a contrarian view that the AV bull narrative inverts the value thesis if Lyft owns the fleet.
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$1.12B TTM free cash flow vs. $5.28B market cap. Buybacks reduced FY2025 share count ~18M despite the $322M GAAP SBC charge. EV/FCF ~4.1x. The market is anchoring on the headline SBC and missing that functional dilution is near zero and cash generation is real.
Probability-weighted central estimate ~$25.83 / share vs. $13.90 close — approximately 90% expected-value upside in the base case. Downside floored by $1B+ FCF run-rate plus $2.88B net deferred tax asset. Methodology: DCF + comps + SOTP + NOL credit, comps refreshed from Yahoo Finance (UBER / DASH / ABNB).
The AV bull narrative — Lyft owns the fleet — likely inverts the value thesis, in the author's view. Owning an AV fleet would convert Lyft from an asset-light, high-ROIC, FCF marketplace into a Hertz / Avis-style heavy-capital fleet operator: depreciation, residual-value risk, financing burden, fleet maintenance, low return on capital. The platform thesis appears to work only if Lyft routes AV miles through partner fleets (Waymo, etc.) and stays asset-light. The author's lens; not a price target, not a recommendation.
Independent editorial analysis · Not affiliated with or endorsed by Lyft, Inc..
This case study is independent editorial and educational analysis of publicly available information about Lyft, Inc.. The Baratelli Institute is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or otherwise connected to Lyft, Inc.. Lyft® and related marks are the property of their respective owners. No claim is made to any such marks by the Baratelli Institute. Analysis draws exclusively on publicly disclosed information (SEC filings, press releases, earnings call transcripts, investor materials, journalist reporting); no non-public information has been received from Lyft, Inc.. Presented for educational and editorial purposes under principles of fair use and fair comment on a publicly traded company. Nothing in this analysis constitutes investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Consult licensed advisors before investment decisions.
The author owns shares of LYFT as disclosed in the case study. This is an educational case study, not investment advice, not a research report, not a buy/sell rating, not a price target, not an allocation recommendation, not an opinion of fairness for any corporate transaction. Every number traces to a public SEC filing. The Institute is not a registered investment adviser; this is a Lowe v. SEC publisher-exception publication.
Every analytical move in this case study cross-references a Guide chapter. If you want to learn the methodology in full, the Guides are where it's taught.
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