Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) (SPACEX) WACC · Cost of Capital Analysis

WACC

12.2%

Blended cost of capital

Cost of Equity (K_e)

12.9%

R_f + β × ERP

Beta

1.55

5-yr weekly, Blume-adjusted

After-tax K_d

6.2%

Pre-tax × (1 − t)

The Calculation, Walked

Component	Value	Source / Assumption
Risk-free rate (R_f)	4.25%	10-year US Treasury yield at snapshot date
Equity risk premium (ERP)	5.55%	Damodaran implied ERP, June 2026 update
Beta (β)	1.55	5-year weekly regression vs S&P 500, Blume-adjusted
Cost of equity (K_e)	12.9%	CAPM: R_f + β × ERP = 4.25% + 1.55 × 5.55%
Pre-tax cost of debt (K_d)	6.25%	Current-yield estimate on senior unsecured debt at issuer's rating
Marginal tax rate (t)	0.0%	Blended federal + state; company-specific effective rate
After-tax cost of debt	6.2%	K_d × (1 − t) = 6.25% × 100.0%
Equity weight (E/V)	90.0%	Market value of equity ÷ total capitalization
Debt weight (D/V)	10.0%	Market value of debt ÷ total capitalization
WACC	12.2%	(E/V × K_e) + (D/V × K_d after-tax)

Practitioner Notes

Recently public. SpaceX completed its initial public offering in 2026 and refinanced its outstanding debt shortly thereafter. The inputs on this page reflect the post-IPO capital structure and the refinanced debt instruments, not the private-tender-implied estimate that was the only defensible number before the IPO.

Beta: Because the public trading history is short, the beta of 1.55 blends the limited observable regression against the S&P 500 with a comparable-company overlay from aerospace primes (Lockheed Martin, RTX, Northrop) adjusted upward for growth profile and reusable-launch operational risk. As the trading history extends, the reference will migrate to the standard 5-year weekly regression used elsewhere in the reference. Until then, treat the beta with a slightly wider error band than public-issuer betas.

Cost of debt: The 6.25% pre-tax rate reflects SpaceX's post-refinancing bond curve. The refinancing meaningfully lowered SpaceX's blended cost of debt relative to the pre-IPO revenue-based financing that had been used for some Starlink assets. Practitioners modeling SpaceX prior to the IPO should not use this number retroactively; the pre-IPO cost of debt was materially higher.

Tax rate: Set to 0% because SpaceX carries accumulated net operating losses that fully shield taxable income at the snapshot date. A practitioner building a long-horizon DCF should step the tax rate up to a normalized 24–26% once forward Starlink cash flow exhausts the NOL carryforward, which is likely inside the typical DCF projection window.

Capital structure: Uses post-IPO public market cap and disclosed debt from the most recent 10-Q. The equity weight reflects the free-float portion of shares outstanding, which is small relative to insider and control holdings.

Practitioner takeaway: SpaceX is now the only publicly traded pure-play launch and satellite-constellation operator at scale, which makes its WACC a useful comparable in space-adjacent transaction analysis. Expect the beta to settle into a narrower band over the next 18–24 months as the trading history builds.

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Where This Number Fits

Use this WACC as the discount rate in an enterprise-value DCF, the hurdle rate for value-based management analysis of SPACEX, or the cost-of-capital anchor when comparing SPACEX to peers in the Space Launch & Satellite Services industry. For equity-only valuation frameworks (dividend discount models, residual income), use the cost of equity K_e of 12.9% instead of the blended WACC.

The methodology page walks each input in more depth and explains where reasonable practitioners disagree. If your own model uses different inputs, the companion Excel workbook exposes every formula so you can substitute directly.

Cite This Page

    Baratelli Institute. “Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) (SPACEX) — WACC.”
    Baratelli WACC Reference. Snapshot date 2026-06-30.

    https://baratelliinstitute.com/wacc/spacex.html
  

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