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Will the 529 cover college? With the Roth rollover and state-deduction math fully shown.

The big-box 529 calculators are funnels to one custodian's plan. We built this because the 529 question is actually a four-part question: (1) will the projected balance hit the tuition target, (2) what's your state's tax deduction worth this year, (3) how does the post-Secure-2.0 $35K lifetime 529-to-Roth IRA rollover change the "what if my kid doesn't go" calculus, and (4) what about the K-12 and student-loan eligible uses? Every variable visible, every formula reproducible by your CPA.

7% real
Default growth rate
$35K
529→Roth lifetime cap
$10K/yr
K-12 eligible use
10 states
Tax deduction lookup

1. The child

Age today and target college start age. Default college start is 18.

2. Tuition target

Annual all-in cost (tuition + room + board + fees). The 2025 IPEDS averages: in-state public ~$28K/yr all-in, out-of-state public ~$46K, private ~$60K, elite private ~$85K. We grow tuition at 4%/yr by default (College Board's 20-year average is 3.5%-5% nominal).
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Pick a school type: $28K in-state, $46K OOS, $60K private, $85K elite. Many parents target 50% — the other half through merit aid, work-study, or current cash flow.
Funding 100% is the conservative choice but often over-saves — merit aid, scholarships, current cash flow, and grandparent gifts typically close 25-50% of the bill. The 529 doesn't have to cover everything.

3. Current 529 balance and contributions

Combine balances across multiple 529s for the same beneficiary. The 7% default growth rate is the after-fee real-equivalent assumption for an age-based glidepath portfolio (heavy equity early, bond shift in the last 5 years).
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Use the household combined contribution (parent + grandparent gifts). Federal annual gift-tax exclusion is $19K/person/year for 2025 ($38K MFJ to one beneficiary). The 5-year-forward "superfunding" provision lets you front-load $95K (single) / $190K (MFJ) in year one and treat it as five years of gifts.
Long-term U.S. equity has returned ~10% nominal, 60/40 ~8%, conservative bond-heavy ~5%. After 529 plan fees (0.1%-0.5% for direct-sold, much higher for advisor-sold), our 7% default is roughly equivalent to a balanced glidepath in a low-fee direct-sold plan.
9 states offer no deduction (FL, TX, etc., have no income tax). 7 states offer "tax parity" — use any state's 529 and get the deduction. Most others require using the in-state plan. The lookup above is current as of early 2026 and may change.
Educational references and tools — not legal, tax, accounting, or investment advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Consult a qualified professional about your specific situation. © 2026 The Baratelli Institute.